China Demands Alterations to Draft Iran Penalties

China on Tuesday called for adjustments to a proposed fourth U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution aimed at pressuring Iran to halt its disputed nuclear activities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 21).

Diplomats said the amendments -- presented to delegates for the four other permanent Security Council member nations and Germany -- would water down punitive measures contained in the draft resolution, which was prepared by the United States with help from several other Western powers that suspect Iran's nuclear program is geared toward weapons development. Tehran insists its nuclear program is strictly civilian in nature.

The six nations -- China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- began discussions of potential sanctions on April 8 and have held meetings on the matter nearly every day since April 14. Beijing, which wields veto authority over Security Council decisions like the body's other permanent members, agreed to join the talks after several months of delay.

China has said, though, that it continues to favor a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

The penalties proposal is believed to be aimed at Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard. It would prohibit Iran from importing small arms, allow for confiscation of questionable materials being shipped to the nation, and cut off Tehran's energy operations from outside financial support, among other measures (Edith Lederer, Associated Press I/Mainichi Daily News, April 21).

Russia today said the Security Council could soon take action unless Iran moved to resolve international concerns about its nuclear work, Agence France-Presse reported.

"If we are talking about a situation where everything stays as it is, in a dead-end state, then I don't think the Security Council will observe this for too long without intervening," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

Iran has a "stubborn lack of desire" to "listen to the calls of the international community" and comply with previous Security Council resolutions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. The Security Council has demanded that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment program, an effort that can produce material for civilian applications as well as weapons.

The standoff "seems to make the passing of a new resolution on sanctions inevitable," Ryabkov said (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, April 22).

Still, many analysts believe that further sanctions are unlikely to sway Iran's nuclear policy, the Washington Post reported today.

"We are in for a long cold war with Iran. It will be containment and deterrence," said International Institute for Strategic Studies nonproliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick. "Iran will muddle along building its stockpile but never making a nuclear bomb because it knows that crossing that line would provoke an immediate military attack," the former State Department official predicted.

"There is a clique in power" in Iran that "does not respond to incentives and does not respond to disincentives," added Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The overwhelming focus of this leadership is on the narrow focus of enriching uranium," he added. "If the Iranian government makes the decision that Iran wants to bet the farm on the nuclear program, it will be difficult to deter them from doing so."

While some analysts suggested Tehran was unlikely to publicly announce it possessed a nuclear bomb, Sadjadpour argued that Iranian conservatives have consolidated their power in Tehran, making the government more likely to pursue a "Pakistan option" by asserting its possession of nuclear weapons and then attempting to rebuild relations with the international community, the expert said.

Attacking Iran in such a scenario would only delay Iran's nuclear progress and "preserve the worst elements of the regime," he said. "It would buy the regime another decade or even a generation" (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, April 22).

The United States would not consider taking military action against Iran in the near future, one high-level U.S. Defense Department official said yesterday.

"Military force is an option of last resort," AP quoted Defense Undersecretary Michele Flournoy as saying. "It's off the table in the near term."

"Right now the focus is a combination of engagement and pressure in the form of sanctions," she said. "We have not seen Iran engage productively in response" (Alex Kennedy, Associated Press II/Google News, April 21).

The Pentagon later insisted it had not ruled out military force, Reuters reported.

"We are not taking any options off the table as we pursue the pressure and engagement tracks," Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said. "The president always has at his disposal a full array of options, including use of the military. ... It is clearly not our preferred course of action but it has never been, nor is it now, off the table" (Adam Entous, Reuters, April 21).

Iran began three days of land-, air- and sea-based military drills, the New York Times reported yesterday.

The event, dubbed Great Prophet 5, was intended to demonstrate “Iran’s strength and will against the threats of the enemies,” state media quoted Revolutionary Guard deputy commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami as saying (Fathi/Sanger, New York Times, April 21).

Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi yesterday reaffirmed Tehran counteroffer to an IAEA uranium enrichment proposal formulated last October, Iran's Press TV reported.

Iran has rejected the original U.N. plan, which called for France and Russia to enrich a large portion of the nation's stockpiled uranium for use at a medical research reactor in Tehran. The proposal was aimed at deferring Tehran's ability to fuel a nuclear weapon long enough to more fully address Western concerns about the its potential nuclear bomb-making capability. Iran has offered only to trade stockpiled uranium for pre-enriched medical reactor fuel in a simultaneous exchange within its borders.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will address the proposal in meetings with U.N. Security Council member nations during next month's Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in New York, Salehi said.

"There are alternative methods that the foreign minister will detail ... after meeting Security Council members," he added.

The official also noted that Iran has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency in a letter "to introduce countries that are able to provide fuel for the Tehran research reactor" (Press TV, April 21).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad departed today for a trip to Uganda, where he is expected to discuss nuclear matters with top officials, AFP reported.

"Obviously as a member of the Security Council we are going to discuss the issue of nuclear energy. ... We've have been engaging Iran on this issue for some time," Ugandan Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary James Mugume said Tuesday (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, April 22).

Meanwhile, Iran yesterday said it plans to build air defenses comparable to Russia's S-300 system, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

"We don't need to produce the S-300 system, but we have plans on the agenda to produce similar weapons," Press TV quoted Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi as saying.

Washington and Jerusalem have pressed Moscow not to provide S-300 defenses to Tehran because they could be used to defend Iranian nuclear facilities from possible airstrikes (Xinhua News Agency, April 22).

Elsewhere, congressional investigators found that 41 non-U.S. firms have done business with Iran's energy industry in the last five years, despite existing U.S. laws that could enable Washington to penalize such companies, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, March 9).

The U.S. Government Accountability Office made the assertion in a report due for release today (Peter Spiegel, Wall Street Journal April 22).